The share price of Turquoise Hill is up almost 20% since the bottom as of end of February. I am not sure who are buyers. But, there are growing optimism recently here in UB regarding the resolution between Rio Tinto and the Government will be published soon.
As the development of the underground will account for about 80 percent of the value of the project, delay of the project finance will impact significantly to the NAV of the company. Therefore, analysts have lowered price target of the company last year.
However, we have not heard any major analysts who have downgraded the company this year.
Also, several major institutional investors have decreased the position at the end of last year. So, few sellers may have remained in the market. However, for the share price to rebound from now on, we need to see long term investors.
In this report, we will explain followings because we believe understanding those will be important to invest in TRQ and Mongolia.
- The press release of Turquoise Hill
- Negative reports on TRQ last year and decline of the share price
- More reasonable guidance by the management of TRQ
- Weaker copper price and currency
- Still negative view on TRQ by Wall Street
- Near term and long term impact of the delay to Mongolia
- Lessons learnt
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