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DP will lead coalition government, populism and resource nationalism to rise strongly in new parliament

According to major Mongolian news portal news.mn, (http://songuuli.news.mn/content/113018.shtml), “General Elections  Committee of Mongolia has not introduced elections final results. In any case the committee is obliged by law to inform election results to President of Mongolia within 15 days of the elections or within June 13,2012.  Re-vote is to proceed in the two election districts but district electoral committees are to decide regarding re-voting.”

“Results by party lists are not finalized but preliminary Parliament seating is to be

DP 31/there will be re-vote in one district/

MPP 27/also there will be re-vote in one district/

MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition-11

CWGP – 2

Independents-3”

Regarding 48 nominees from 26 election districts( majoritarian vote), 46 are clear.

DP has got 21 seats( within these 21 seats one nominee , L.Erkhembayar in populous Songino Khairkhan district has got less than legally instructed 28% threshold, - 26,09%  therefore the electoral district committee will decide whether there will be a revote).

DP’s successful nominees( personal comments by Dale Choi within parenthesis)

  1. 1.N.Batbayar( author of ill-fated WPT, well known for his anti-OT IA stance, populism and resource nationalism)
  2. 2.B.Bolor
  3. 3.A.Bakei
  4. 4.Kh.Battulga( former Minister of Roads, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development, known for support for Russian gage railroad and priority for eastern railroad)
  5. 5.D.Ganbat
  6. 6.B.Narankhuu( Chairman of Mon-Uran group)
  7. 7.Ya.Sanjmyatav
  8. 8.D. Bat-Erdene (Chairman of MSE-listed Tavan Tolgoi joint stock company, known for resource nationalism)
  9. 9.M.Zorigt
  10. 10.S.Bayartsogt( former Finance Minister, one of the signatories to OT IA)
  11. 11.B.Garamgaibaatar
  12. 12.Ts.Oyungerel ( Chairperson of DP Women Association, former advisor to the President, Stanford-educated)
  13. 13.L.Bold(former Defense Minister)
  14. 14.J.Batzandan( former radical, independent board director of Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC)
  15. 15.D.Gankhuyag(well known for his anti-OT IA stance and resource nationalism)
  16. 16.L.Gantumur
  17. 17.R.Amarjargal
  18. 18.G.Bayarsaikhan(well known for his anti-OTand general anti-mining stance)
  19. 19.S.Erdene(well known for his anti-OT IA stance, populism and resource nationalism)
  20. 20.S.Odontuya
  21. 21.L.Erdenechimeg

L.Erkhembayar (in populous Songino Khairkhan district has got less legally instructed 28% threshold, - 26,09%  therefore the electoral district committee will decide whether there will be a revote)

MPP has got 19 seats (within these 19 seats one nominee , B.Batzorig in populous Songino Khairkhan district has got less than legally instructed 28% threshold, - 24,66%  therefore the electoral district committee will decide whether there will be a revote).

MPP’s successful nominees.

  1. 1.A.Tleikhan
  2. 2.Yo.Otgonbayar(former Minister of Education, Science and Culture)
  3. 3.Ts.Dashdorj
  4. 4.J.Batsuuri
  5. 5.N.Nomtoibayar( son of Chairman of MAK Group Nyamtaishir)
  6. 6.D.Oyunkhorol
  7. 7.S.Chinzorig
  8. 8.N.Tumurkhuu
  9. 9.J.Erdenebat
  10. 10.M.Enkhbold( former Deputy Premier)
  11. 11.Su.Batbold
  12. 12.Ch.Khurelbaatar
  13. 13.B.Choijilsuren
  14. 14.S.Byambatsogt(known for his anti-OT IA stance and resource nationalism)
  15. 15.L.Enkh-Amgalan(Non-Executive Director of Mongolian Mining Corporation)
  16. 16.B.Bat-Erdene(known for his anti-OT IA stance and resource nationalism)
  17. 17.D.Khayankhyarvaa
  18. 18.O.Sodbileg( son of late Chairman of Erdenet Mining Corporation Otgonbileg)
  19. 19.B.Batzorigt(in populous Bayanzukh district has got less legally instructed 28% threshold, - 24,66%  therefore the electoral district committee will decide whether there will be a revote)

MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition got 4 seats.

MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition successful nominees ( all characterized by populism and resource nationalism – Dale Choi)

  1. 1.D.Battsogt
  2. 2.L.Tsog
  3. 3.G.Uyanga( radical)
  4. 4.D.Terbishdagva(also well known for his anti-OT IA stance)

Independents got 3 seats.

  1. 1.Kh.Bolorchuluun (Dornod province)
  2. 2.Ts.Davaasuren(ex-MPP, known for resource nationalism stance)
  3. 3.S.Ganbaatar( President of Mongolian Trade Unions Association, known for populism and resource nationalism)

Further according to news.mn, revotes are to proceed in Bayanzurkh and Songino Khairkhan district where nominees B.Batzorig(MPP) and L.Erkhembayar(DP) have got less than 28% of votes.  The respective preceding two candidates who got more than 28% will not be voted on, only candidates below 28% will be voted on.

According to latest GEC prelimary results on proportional party votes

DP got 35,32 %

MPP got 31,31%

MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition got 22,31%

Civil Will Green Party got 5,51%

Rest of parties got below 5% threshold

By proportional vote system, in preliminary results, DP will get 10 seats, MPP 9 seats, MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition 7 seats, CWGP 2 seats.

Successful DP candidates by party list

  1. 1.N.Altankhuyag(Chairman of DP)
  2. 2.Z.Enkhbold(known for his anti-OT IA stance and resource nationalism)
  3. 3.Kh.Temuujin
  4. 4.Ch.Saikhanbileg
  5. 5.D.Erdenebat
  6. 6.Sh.Tuvdendorj
  7. 7.R.Burmaa
  8. 8.Ts.Bayarsaikhan
  9. 9.R.Gonchigdorj
  10. 10.M.Batchimeg

Successful MPP candidates by party list

  1. 1.S.Batbold(Chairman of MPP)
  2. 2.U.Khurelsukh
  3. 3.D.Demberel
  4. 4.U.Enkhtuvshin
  5. 5.L.Lundeejantsan
  6. 6.Ts.Nyamdorj
  7. 7.N.Enkhbold
  8. 8.Ya.Sodbaatar
  9. 9.J.Enkhbayar

Successful MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition candidates by party list

  1. 1.Ch.Ulaan
  2. 2.N.Battsereg
  3. 3.M.Sonompil
  4. 4.Z.Bayanselenge
  5. 5.O.Baasankhuu
  6. 6.Ts.Tsolmon
  7. 7.Ts.Oyunbaatar

Successful CWGP candidates by party list

  1. 1.S.Oyun
  2. 2.S.Demberel

However, GEC will introduce and finalize which party will get how many seats.

Further according to news.mn, MPP and over 10 parties and coalition have demanded from GEC manual recount of votes. The portal also reported GEC stated that “there is no legal foundation for manual recount. Nationwide manual recount would breach the law. GEC is working according to law and requesting from parties no outside influence on activities of GEC.”

Frontier Securities conclusion:

  • Our interpretation of latest poll results by Sant Maral Foundation  in our research report” ELECTION OUTLOOK: ODDS ARE IN DP’S FAVOR YET RESOURCE NATIONALISM IS TO RISE WHICHEVER PARTY WINS” of June 21,2012 has proven to be correct.  Election is indeed resulting in “slight DP plurality (30-35 seats), but not enough to form government with CWGP”(as formulated by Julian Dierkes, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia’s Institute of Asian Research)
  • Further in line with our forecast, resource nationalism is to rise strongly. The successful nominees already include at least 9 candidates from both DP and MPP known for their various degree of populism and resource nationalism, on top of this 11 nominee MPRP-MNDP Justice Coalition faction which includes for example radical G.Uyanga will be “loud voice for populism and resource nationalism”. Two of the independents are also known for populism and resource nationalism
  • Influential writer Baabar has stated today (http://www.demparty.mn/news.php?id=474), “two of three independents have already said that they will join MPRP”
  • Only two scenarios left for DP is to make coalition either with MPRP or with MPP.
  • We still believe that most likely outcome would be DP Coalition with MPP.