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2012 election outlook report: undecided voters would be decisive

To get a full PDF version of this research report please click on http://dl.dropbox.com/u/42174832/2012%20ELECTION%20OUTLOOK%20REPORT.pdf

While reviewing poll results one can see that major two political  parties have roughly same kind of support of 17% . It would be “undecided” voters (28.7% ) and “no answer” voters ( 12.4%)  and “depends on the candidate” voters (7.0%) together accounting for a whopping 48.1% of votes that would be decisive for the election.

A party that would deliver most convincing impression on those voters on solutions for the interlinked major priorities for voters, namely, unemployment, standard of living/poverty/income and price increase/inflation would  get most gain during the elections.

The ruling party MPP has a benefit of certain track record of success such as high economic growth and so on. On top of it,  we view that voters have common sense as indicated by high support for Coalition Government and value most of all political and state stability and continuity which works to the advantage of the ruling party and oppose radical political changes. At the same time, although it appears that voters are indeed better off than they were four years ago, inflation does eat away substantial chunk of this benefit and voters are growingly dissatisfied with their standards of living and feeling left out from the economic boom which indeed disproportionally benefits more rich than poor. This benefits the most the Democratic Party, as evidenced by the party being more popular in more liberal and educated Ulaanbaatar compared to traditionally conservative countryside. This was the case indeed in last Presidential elections resulting in Democratic President.

Upcoming elections would be extremely competitive as all parties would focus on those groups of voters. Notable is support by certain section of voters of independents and MPRP /MNDP union. Those represent segments of society dissatisfied with major two political parties.

Sumati Luvsandendev, director of Sant Maral Foundation, the premier Mongolian polling institution in the country which has developed a reputation as one of the most reliable and politically unbiased polling organizations, and has made accurate predictions on the outcome of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections through 1996-2009 commented to Frontier Securities:

“The main point is that there are still too many undecided. Enkhbayar story did not change this situation.  Also there is  one important point that may have been overlooked. There is 5% threshold on proportional part. It makes problematic to get through it for all but three parties, CWGP is in a bad shape by our poll. In a worst situation they may stay out of big politics. MPRP looks OK but it is hard to measure the impact of Enkhbayar controversy. Overall, the population is very much targeting to renew our decision makers pool but existing legislation is not in favor of it.”

 

Dale Choi | Chief Investment Strategist | Frontier Securities | #705, Blue Sky Tower, Peace Avenue 17, 1st khoroo, Sukhbaatar district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia| Office: +976 7011999 | Mobile: +976.99103371 | Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.">This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.